How Bottleneck Finder works
The method is simple on purpose: find the part that is hard to make more of, check six signals, and name the stage.
The six signals
- Prices rising
- Lead times over a year
- Sold out or long contracts
- New supply 18+ months away
- Stock below its high
- A dated catalyst
Each signal is yes or no. Four or more of the first four signals means a real shortage. The fifth tells you whether the stock has already run. The sixth is the dated event that could prove the fear wrong.
Rules this site keeps
- Education, not advice. No buy or sell calls, nothing personalized, no promised returns.
- Every price shows its date.
- Analyst targets are labelled as analysts' opinions. Scenarios are labelled as "what if" math.
- Any ownership the authors hold in covered stocks will be disclosed.
Questions
How are shortages scored?
Six yes-or-no signals: prices rising, lead times over a year, makers sold out or on multi-year contracts, new supply 18+ months away, the stock below its 12-month high, and a dated event that could prove the fear wrong.
Where does the data come from?
Prices, 12-month ranges, beta and analyst targets come from stockanalysis.com. Yearly returns come from companiesmarketcap.com. Shortage evidence comes from trade press and company filings.
What are the good and bad cases?
Good case uses the analysts' average 12-month target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta, with a floor of 0.5 and 2.5 where beta is missing. Both are what-if math, not forecasts.