23 shortages across six trends, earliest stage first. Each one scores six signals.
Stage 1, Starting: supply is tight and prices just began to rise, but the stocks have not moved yet.
Glass cloth for chip boards (one maker holds about 90%) and MLCC capacitors. Prices up 30% to 140%.
Fear: Most makers trade in Japan and Taiwan; US exposure is thin.
China tightened drone part exports on 5 Aug and tariffs started 3 Sep. No price hikes found yet.
Fear: May never become a real shortage.
Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear.
Enrichment price near $200 per unit. Russian supply waivers end Jan 2028; new US plants 2029 or later.
Fear: Utilities paused new contracts; nuclear startups crashed and dragged the group.
Patriot and THAAD interceptors and the motors inside them. Lead times 24 to 30 months; a $58B seven-year Lockheed deal.
Fear: Iran ceasefire talks and a stalled budget.
Heavy rare earths and magnets made outside China.
Fear: China's export pause runs out around Nov 2026.
Indium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
Fear: September AI-spending wobble cut many of these 35% to 58%.
Big electrical panels for data centers and the grid. Lead times 52 to 104 weeks; record orders.
Fear: Orders come in lumps.
Engines that push natural gas through pipes. 160-week lead times; Kodiak sold out.
Fear: Low natural gas prices.
Antimony for ammunition and flame retardants, outside China.
Fear: One decision on 27 Nov 2026 decides it.
Occupancy 89.5% and new building at a record low.
Fear: The biggest operator is still unprofitable.
Few launch providers outside SpaceX.
Fear: Rocket Lab already rose 380% in 2024 and 180% in 2025.
Stage 3, Priced in: the shortage is real and the stocks already reflect it.
HBM memory, flash and hard drives allocated into 2028.
Fear: Already priced: SanDisk went about 41x in 21 months.
Same shortage, owned through big landlords.
Fear: Pricey at 84 times next year's profits.
AMD's 2027 output reportedly committed; prices up over 40%.
Fear: Stocks already at analyst targets.
Crews that build lines and substations.
Fear: Already near highs.
Record copper prices; a new tungsten mine opened in September.
Fear: Already priced; tungsten supply arriving.
Precision motors for robots and automation.
Fear: Up 159% in a year.
Glut: there is too much supply and prices are falling.
Plenty of assemblers. They buy the scarce parts.
Fear: Thin margins.
Gas is plentiful. Small reactor startups have no revenue yet.
Fear: Supply, not shortage.
Many makers, no shortage found.
Fear: Crowded field.
Too much supply.
Fear: Glut.
The FDA says the shortages are over; prices falling.
Fear: Glut.
Factories being overbuilt.
Fear: Glut.