Shortage stages · public data · education only
When everyone builds the same thing at once, one part always runs short. Prices jump, buyers sign long contracts, and new supply is a year or more away. Those makers' stocks move early and move the most. Pick a trend to see where it is pinched and what stage each shortage is in.
Glass cloth for chip boards (one maker holds about 90%) and MLCC capacitors. Prices up 30% to 140%.
Fear: Most makers trade in Japan and Taiwan; US exposure is thin.
China tightened drone part exports on 5 Aug and tariffs started 3 Sep. No price hikes found yet.
Fear: May never become a real shortage.
Enrichment price near $200 per unit. Russian supply waivers end Jan 2028; new US plants 2029 or later.
Fear: Utilities paused new contracts; nuclear startups crashed and dragged the group.
Patriot and THAAD interceptors and the motors inside them. Lead times 24 to 30 months; a $58B seven-year Lockheed deal.
Fear: Iran ceasefire talks and a stalled budget.
Heavy rare earths and magnets made outside China.
Fear: China's export pause runs out around Nov 2026.
Indium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
Fear: September AI-spending wobble cut many of these 35% to 58%.
| TTMI TTM Technologies | Stage 1 · Starting | $122.80 | $53.36 – $223.83 | 45% | $203.00 | $165.31 | $46.25 |
| UMAC Unusual Machines | Stage 1 · Starting | $24.63 | $7.25 – $34.93 | 29% | $39.00 | $158.34 | $37.50 |
| VSH Vishay | Stage 1 · Starting | $32.46 Sep 29 | $11.77 – $69.47 | 53% | $40.00 | $123.23 | $55.00 |
| AAOI Applied Optoelectronics | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $99.26 | $18.50 – $233.67 | 58% | $163.40 | $164.62 | $5.50 |
| AROC Archrock | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $30.29 | $22.88 – $42.23 | 28% | $42.50 | $140.31 | $78.50 |
| AXTI AXT | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $77.41 | $4.00 – $143.16 | 46% | $91.60 | $118.33 | $52.00 |
| BKD Brookdale | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $10.98 Sep 29 | $7.97 – $17.09 | 36% | $19.25 | $175.32 | $85.50 |
| BWXT BWX Technologies | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $137.00 | $133.21 – $241.82 | 43% | $222.07 | $162.09 | $81.50 |
| CCJ Cameco | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $86.67 | $77.70 – $135.24 | 36% | $126.85 | $146.36 | $74.75 |
| CIEN Ciena | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $351.82 | $143.19 – $637.51 | 45% | $516.83 | $146.90 | $67.25 |
| COHR Coherent | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $287.81 | $105.02 – $440.00 | 35% | $415.36 | $144.32 | $47.50 |
| FN Fabrinet | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $424.27 | $355.50 – $748.89 | 43% | $734.11 | $173.03 | $69.75 |
| KGS Kodiak Gas | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $52.97 | $32.55 – $77.68 | 32% | $83.13 | $156.94 | $77.75 |
| KRMN Karman | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $32.42 | $32.20 – $118.38 | 73% | $89.70 | $276.68 | $37.50 |
| LEU Centrus Energy | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $139.49 | $135.85 – $464.25 | 70% | $247.40 | $177.36 | $66.75 |
| LHX L3Harris | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $236.78 | $234.01 – $379.23 | 38% | $338.50 | $142.96 | $87.25 |
| LITE Lumentum | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $971.26 | $147.81 – $1,086 | 11% | $1,157 | $119.13 | $61.50 |
| LMT Lockheed Martin | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $509.25 | $437.25 – $692.00 | 26% | $637.84 | $125.25 | $87.50 |
| MP MP Materials | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $47.29 | $37.81 – $100.25 | 53% | $74.29 | $157.09 | $51.25 |
| MTZ MasTec | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $213.62 | $182.34 – $441.43 | 52% | $413.80 | $193.71 | $54.50 |
| NOC Northrop Grumman | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $483.48 | $479.02 – $774.00 | 38% | $644.91 | $133.39 | $87.50 |
| POWL Powell Industries | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $184.47 | $92.59 – $328.00 | 44% | $280.00 | $151.79 | $70.50 |
| PPTA Perpetua | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $21.53 Sep 29 | $16.44 – $37.37 | 42% | $36.90 | $171.39 | $60.00 if event fails |
| RCAT Red Cat | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $6.46 | $5.77 – $18.78 | 66% | $16.50 | $255.42 | $62.25 |
| RKLB Rocket Lab | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $69.68 | $37.57 – $151.00 | 54% | $109.37 | $156.96 | $34.75 |
| SNDA Sonida | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $37.61 Sep 29 | $24.95 – $44.39 | 15% | $49.50 | $131.61 | $81.25 |
| UAMY US Antimony | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $4.17 | $4.16 – $19.71 | 79% | $10.44 | $250.36 | $50.00 if event fails |
| USAR USA Rare Earth | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $14.08 | $11.45 – $43.98 | 68% | $35.56 | $252.56 | $34.75 |
| ALM Almonty | Stage 3 · Priced in | $13.16 | $5.44 – $24.41 | 46% | $24.33 | $184.88 | $65.25 |
| ALNT Allient | Stage 3 · Priced in | $112.56 | $41.75 – $118.67 | 5% | $118.00 | $104.83 | $59.50 |
| AMD AMD | Stage 3 · Priced in | $611.76 | $159.33 – $639.00 | 4% | $618.51 | $101.10 | $38.00 |
| FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Stage 3 · Priced in | $70.00 | $37.20 – $80.24 | 13% | $72.45 | $103.50 | $65.00 |
| INTC Intel | Stage 3 · Priced in | $120.23 | $32.89 – $142.35 | 16% | $116.37 | $96.79 | $44.25 |
| MU Micron | Stage 3 · Priced in | $1,065 | $164.00 – $1,255 | 15% | $1,523 | $143.00 | $44.00 |
| PWR Quanta Services | Stage 3 · Priced in | $642.51 | $404.51 – $788.75 | 19% | $769.63 | $119.78 | $70.00 |
| SNDK SanDisk | Stage 3 · Priced in | $1,740 | $112.00 – $2,354 | 26% | $2,137 | $122.80 | $37.50 |
| STX Seagate | Stage 3 · Priced in | $922.34 | $209.00 – $1,145 | 19% | $1,125 | $121.97 | $47.75 |
| WDC Western Digital | Stage 3 · Priced in | $454.46 | $112.52 – $799.87 | 43% | $664.92 | $146.31 | $45.50 |
| WELL Welltower | Stage 3 · Priced in | $230.24 | $163.75 – $255.20 | 10% | $262.05 | $113.82 | $81.00 |
| ALB Albemarle | Glut | $105.78 | $79.30 – $221.00 | 52% | $171.56 | $162.19 | $66.75 |
| AVAV AeroVironment | Glut | $142.22 | $135.20 – $417.86 | 66% | $219.35 | $154.23 | $66.00 |
| EQT EQT | Glut | $48.56 | $47.94 – $68.24 | 29% | $67.50 | $139.00 | $83.75 |
| KTOS Kratos | Glut | $42.69 | $42.46 – $134.00 | 68% | $102.76 | $240.71 | $72.75 |
| NVO Novo Nordisk | Glut | $37.91 | $35.12 – $64.16 | 41% | $46.39 | $122.37 | $87.50 |
| OKLO Oklo | Glut | $37.02 | $34.38 – $193.84 | 81% | $76.43 | $206.46 | $70.00 |
| RRX Regal Rexnord | Glut | $155.11 | $127.96 – $247.80 | 37% | $248.20 | $160.02 | $74.00 |
| SMCI Supermicro | Glut | $41.07 | $19.48 – $58.78 | 30% | $42.38 | $103.19 | $50.00 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
A bottleneck stock belongs to a company that makes the one input that runs short when a whole industry builds the same thing at once. Prices for that part rise, buyers sign long contracts, and new supply takes a year or more, so the maker's stock often moves first and most.
It scores six yes-or-no signals: prices rising, lead times over a year, makers sold out or on multi-year contracts, new supply 18 or more months away, the stock still below its 12-month high, and a dated event that could prove the fear wrong. The result is one of five stages: Starting, Pulled back, Priced in, Slow build or Glut.
The shortage moved year by year: AI chips and cooling in 2023, networking and power in 2024, optical lasers, storage and memory in 2025, then memory again, server CPUs and chip-machine parts in 2026. SanDisk rose about 41 times in 21 months while Nvidia rose about 1.6 times over the same span.
No. It is education and public data. It does not tell anyone what to buy or sell, and it does not know your finances. Stocks can lose most of their value.
Prices are the 30 Sep 2026 close unless a stock shows an earlier date. Every price on the site shows its date.