Senior housing
Stage 2 · Pulled backOccupancy 89.5% and new building at a record low.
Fear: The biggest operator is still unprofitable.
BKD, SNDA4/6
Trend: Aging populationAging population shortage
Obesity drugs shortage: Glut
GlutThe FDA says the shortages are over; prices falling.
- What is short
- The FDA says the shortages are over; prices falling.
- Fear holding it back
- Glut.
- What could change it
- None.
- What the stage means
- Glut: there is too much supply and prices are falling.
Six shortage signals
1/6- Prices rising: no
- Lead times over a year: no
- Sold out or long contracts: no
- New supply 18+ months away: no
- Stock below its high: yes
- A dated catalyst: no
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
Stocks tied to this shortage
| NVO Novo Nordisk | Glut | $37.91 | $35.12 – $64.16 | 41% | $46.39 | $122.37 | $87.50 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Questions
What is short in obesity drugs?
The FDA says the shortages are over; prices falling.
What stage is the obesity drugs shortage in?
Glut: there is too much supply and prices are falling. It scores 1 of 6 shortage signals.
What is holding obesity drugs stocks back?
Glut.
What could change the obesity drugs story?
None.
More in aging population
Senior housing landlords
Stage 3 · Priced inSame shortage, owned through big landlords.
Fear: Pricey at 84 times next year's profits.
WELL3/6
Trend: Aging population