Senior housing
Stage 2 · Pulled backOccupancy 89.5% and new building at a record low.
Fear: The biggest operator is still unprofitable.
BKD, SNDA4/6
Trend: Aging populationAging population shortage
Senior housing landlords shortage: Stage 3, Priced in
Stage 3 · Priced inSame shortage, owned through big landlords.
- What is short
- Same shortage, owned through big landlords.
- Fear holding it back
- Pricey at 84 times next year's profits.
- What could change it
- None.
- What the stage means
- Stage 3, Priced in: the shortage is real and the stocks already reflect it.
Six shortage signals
3/6- Prices rising: yes
- Lead times over a year: yes
- Sold out or long contracts: no
- New supply 18+ months away: yes
- Stock below its high: no
- A dated catalyst: no
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
Stocks tied to this shortage
| WELL Welltower | Stage 3 · Priced in | $230.24 | $163.75 – $255.20 | 10% | $262.05 | $113.82 | $81.00 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Questions
What is short in senior housing landlords?
Same shortage, owned through big landlords.
What stage is the senior housing landlords shortage in?
Stage 3, Priced in: the shortage is real and the stocks already reflect it. It scores 3 of 6 shortage signals.
What is holding senior housing landlords stocks back?
Pricey at 84 times next year's profits.
What could change the senior housing landlords story?
None.
More in aging population
Obesity drugs
GlutThe FDA says the shortages are over; prices falling.
Fear: Glut.
NVO1/6
Trend: Aging population