Switchgear
Stage 2 · Pulled backBig electrical panels for data centers and the grid. Lead times 52 to 104 weeks; record orders.
Fear: Orders come in lumps.
POWL, MTZ5/6
Trend: Nuclear and gridNuclear and grid shortage
Uranium enrichment shortage: Stage 2, Pulled back
Stage 2 · Pulled backEnrichment price near $200 per unit. Russian supply waivers end Jan 2028; new US plants 2029 or later.
- What is short
- Enrichment price near $200 per unit. Russian supply waivers end Jan 2028; new US plants 2029 or later.
- Fear holding it back
- Utilities paused new contracts; nuclear startups crashed and dragged the group.
- What could change it
- Jan 2028 waiver end.
- What the stage means
- Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear.
Six shortage signals
6/6- Prices rising: yes
- Lead times over a year: yes
- Sold out or long contracts: yes
- New supply 18+ months away: yes
- Stock below its high: yes
- A dated catalyst: yes
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
Stocks tied to this shortage
| BWXT BWX Technologies | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $137.00 | $133.21 – $241.82 | 43% | $222.07 | $162.09 | $81.50 |
| CCJ Cameco | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $86.67 | $77.70 – $135.24 | 36% | $126.85 | $146.36 | $74.75 |
| LEU Centrus Energy | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $139.49 | $135.85 – $464.25 | 70% | $247.40 | $177.36 | $66.75 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Dates to watch
Each quarterOrder backlogs at switchgear, nuclear and compression makersPOWL, BWXT, KGS, AROC
Jan 2028Russian enrichment waivers endLEU, CCJ
Questions
What is short in uranium enrichment?
Enrichment price near $200 per unit. Russian supply waivers end Jan 2028; new US plants 2029 or later.
What stage is the uranium enrichment shortage in?
Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear. It scores 6 of 6 shortage signals.
What is holding uranium enrichment stocks back?
Utilities paused new contracts; nuclear startups crashed and dragged the group.
What could change the uranium enrichment story?
Jan 2028 waiver end.
More in nuclear and grid
Gas compression
Stage 2 · Pulled backEngines that push natural gas through pipes. 160-week lead times; Kodiak sold out.
Fear: Low natural gas prices.
KGS, AROC5/6
Trend: Nuclear and gridGrid builders
Stage 3 · Priced inCrews that build lines and substations.
Fear: Already near highs.
PWR2/6
Trend: Nuclear and grid