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Trend

Nuclear and grid: where the shortage is and what stage it is in

Enrichment, switchgear and gas compression are sold out for years, yet several of these stocks sit near their 12-month lows.

Stage count for nuclear and grid

1StartingPrices just started rising. Stocks have not moved yet.0 stocks
2Pulled backShortage is real, but the stock dropped on a specific fear.7 stocks
3Priced inShortage is real and the stock already reflects it.1 stock
4Slow buildMulti-year demand with no sudden price jump.0 stocks
✕GlutToo much supply. Prices falling.2 stocks

Where it is pinched

Uranium enrichment

Stage 2 · Pulled back

Enrichment price near $200 per unit. Russian supply waivers end Jan 2028; new US plants 2029 or later.

Fear: Utilities paused new contracts; nuclear startups crashed and dragged the group.

LEU, BWXT, CCJ6/6
Trend: Nuclear and grid

Switchgear

Stage 2 · Pulled back

Big electrical panels for data centers and the grid. Lead times 52 to 104 weeks; record orders.

Fear: Orders come in lumps.

POWL, MTZ5/6
Trend: Nuclear and grid

Gas compression

Stage 2 · Pulled back

Engines that push natural gas through pipes. 160-week lead times; Kodiak sold out.

Fear: Low natural gas prices.

KGS, AROC5/6
Trend: Nuclear and grid

Grid builders

Stage 3 · Priced in

Crews that build lines and substations.

Fear: Already near highs.

PWR2/6
Trend: Nuclear and grid

Stocks tied to nuclear and grid

Stocks tied to these shortages, with stage, price on 30 Sep 2026, 12-month range, analyst target and what-if cases
AROC
Archrock
Stage 2 · Pulled back$30.29
$22.88 – $42.23
28%$42.50$140.31$78.50
BWXT
BWX Technologies
Stage 2 · Pulled back$137.00
$133.21 – $241.82
43%$222.07$162.09$81.50
CCJ
Cameco
Stage 2 · Pulled back$86.67
$77.70 – $135.24
36%$126.85$146.36$74.75
KGS
Kodiak Gas
Stage 2 · Pulled back$52.97
$32.55 – $77.68
32%$83.13$156.94$77.75
LEU
Centrus Energy
Stage 2 · Pulled back$139.49
$135.85 – $464.25
70%$247.40$177.36$66.75
MTZ
MasTec
Stage 2 · Pulled back$213.62
$182.34 – $441.43
52%$413.80$193.71$54.50
POWL
Powell Industries
Stage 2 · Pulled back$184.47
$92.59 – $328.00
44%$280.00$151.79$70.50
PWR
Quanta Services
Stage 3 · Priced in$642.51
$404.51 – $788.75
19%$769.63$119.78$70.00
EQT
EQT
Glut$48.56
$47.94 – $68.24
29%$67.50$139.00$83.75
OKLO
Oklo
Glut$37.02
$34.38 – $193.84
81%$76.43$206.46$70.00

Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.

Dates that could move these

Each quarterOrder backlogs at switchgear, nuclear and compression makersPOWL, BWXT, KGS, AROC
Jan 2028Russian enrichment waivers endLEU, CCJ

Questions about nuclear and grid

What is the bottleneck in nuclear and grid?

Enrichment, switchgear and gas compression are sold out for years, yet several of these stocks sit near their 12-month lows.

Which nuclear and grid shortages are at stage 1 or 2?

Uranium enrichment (stage 2, 6 of 6 signals); Switchgear (stage 2, 5 of 6 signals); Gas compression (stage 2, 5 of 6 signals). Stage 1 means prices just started rising and the stocks have not moved. Stage 2 means the shortage is real but the stocks fell on a specific fear.

Is there a glut in nuclear and grid?

Yes, in some parts: Natural gas and nuclear startups. A glut means too much supply, which is the opposite of a bottleneck.

Is this investment advice?

No. Bottleneck Finder is education and public data. It never tells anyone to buy or sell, and it does not know your finances.

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