Missiles and defense shortage
Many makers, no shortage found.
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
| AVAV AeroVironment | Glut | $142.22 | $135.20 – $417.86 | 66% | $219.35 | $154.23 | $66.00 |
| KTOS Kratos | Glut | $42.69 | $42.46 – $134.00 | 68% | $102.76 | $240.71 | $72.75 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Many makers, no shortage found.
Glut: there is too much supply and prices are falling. It scores 1 of 6 shortage signals.
Crowded field.
None.
Patriot and THAAD interceptors and the motors inside them. Lead times 24 to 30 months; a $58B seven-year Lockheed deal.
Fear: Iran ceasefire talks and a stalled budget.