Drone makers
GlutMany makers, no shortage found.
Fear: Crowded field.
AVAV, KTOS1/6
Trend: Missiles and defenseMissiles and defense shortage
Solid rocket motors and interceptors shortage: Stage 2, Pulled back
Stage 2 · Pulled backPatriot and THAAD interceptors and the motors inside them. Lead times 24 to 30 months; a $58B seven-year Lockheed deal.
- What is short
- Patriot and THAAD interceptors and the motors inside them. Lead times 24 to 30 months; a $58B seven-year Lockheed deal.
- Fear holding it back
- Iran ceasefire talks and a stalled budget.
- What could change it
- Budget vote; reorder announcements.
- What the stage means
- Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear.
Six shortage signals
6/6- Prices rising: yes
- Lead times over a year: yes
- Sold out or long contracts: yes
- New supply 18+ months away: yes
- Stock below its high: yes
- A dated catalyst: yes
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
Stocks tied to this shortage
| KRMN Karman | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $32.42 | $32.20 – $118.38 | 73% | $89.70 | $276.68 | $37.50 |
| LHX L3Harris | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $236.78 | $234.01 – $379.23 | 38% | $338.50 | $142.96 | $87.25 |
| LMT Lockheed Martin | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $509.25 | $437.25 – $692.00 | 26% | $637.84 | $125.25 | $87.50 |
| NOC Northrop Grumman | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $483.48 | $479.02 – $774.00 | 38% | $644.91 | $133.39 | $87.50 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Questions
What is short in solid rocket motors and interceptors?
Patriot and THAAD interceptors and the motors inside them. Lead times 24 to 30 months; a $58B seven-year Lockheed deal.
What stage is the solid rocket motors and interceptors shortage in?
Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear. It scores 6 of 6 shortage signals.
What is holding solid rocket motors and interceptors stocks back?
Iran ceasefire talks and a stalled budget.
What could change the solid rocket motors and interceptors story?
Budget vote; reorder announcements.