Trend
Rocket motors and interceptors have 24 to 30 month lead times. Defense stocks fell 7 straight weeks on ceasefire talks.
Patriot and THAAD interceptors and the motors inside them. Lead times 24 to 30 months; a $58B seven-year Lockheed deal.
Fear: Iran ceasefire talks and a stalled budget.
Many makers, no shortage found.
Fear: Crowded field.
| KRMN Karman | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $32.42 | $32.20 – $118.38 | 73% | $89.70 | $276.68 | $37.50 |
| LHX L3Harris | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $236.78 | $234.01 – $379.23 | 38% | $338.50 | $142.96 | $87.25 |
| LMT Lockheed Martin | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $509.25 | $437.25 – $692.00 | 26% | $637.84 | $125.25 | $87.50 |
| NOC Northrop Grumman | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $483.48 | $479.02 – $774.00 | 38% | $644.91 | $133.39 | $87.50 |
| AVAV AeroVironment | Glut | $142.22 | $135.20 – $417.86 | 66% | $219.35 | $154.23 | $66.00 |
| KTOS Kratos | Glut | $42.69 | $42.46 – $134.00 | 68% | $102.76 | $240.71 | $72.75 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Rocket motors and interceptors have 24 to 30 month lead times. Defense stocks fell 7 straight weeks on ceasefire talks.
Solid rocket motors and interceptors (stage 2, 6 of 6 signals). Stage 1 means prices just started rising and the stocks have not moved. Stage 2 means the shortage is real but the stocks fell on a specific fear.
Yes, in some parts: Drone makers. A glut means too much supply, which is the opposite of a bottleneck.
No. Bottleneck Finder is education and public data. It never tells anyone to buy or sell, and it does not know your finances.