Rare earths and magnets
Stage 2 · Pulled backHeavy rare earths and magnets made outside China.
Fear: China's export pause runs out around Nov 2026.
MP, USAR6/6
Trend: Critical mineralsCritical minerals shortage
Antimony shortage: Stage 2, Pulled back
Stage 2 · Pulled backAntimony for ammunition and flame retardants, outside China.
- What is short
- Antimony for ammunition and flame retardants, outside China.
- Fear holding it back
- One decision on 27 Nov 2026 decides it.
- What could change it
- 27 Nov 2026.
- What the stage means
- Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear.
Six shortage signals
5/6- Prices rising: yes
- Lead times over a year: no
- Sold out or long contracts: yes
- New supply 18+ months away: yes
- Stock below its high: yes
- A dated catalyst: yes
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
Stocks tied to this shortage
| PPTA Perpetua | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $21.53 Sep 29 | $16.44 – $37.37 | 42% | $36.90 | $171.39 | $60.00 if event fails |
| UAMY US Antimony | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $4.17 | $4.16 – $19.71 | 79% | $10.44 | $250.36 | $50.00 if event fails |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Dates to watch
27 Nov 2026Antimony decisionUAMY, PPTA
Questions
What is short in antimony?
Antimony for ammunition and flame retardants, outside China.
What stage is the antimony shortage in?
Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear. It scores 5 of 6 shortage signals.
What is holding antimony stocks back?
One decision on 27 Nov 2026 decides it.
What could change the antimony story?
27 Nov 2026.
More in critical minerals
Copper and tungsten
Stage 3 · Priced inRecord copper prices; a new tungsten mine opened in September.
Fear: Already priced; tungsten supply arriving.
FCX, ALM1/6
Trend: Critical mineralsLithium
GlutToo much supply.
Fear: Glut.
ALB1/6
Trend: Critical minerals