Antimony
Stage 2 · Pulled backAntimony for ammunition and flame retardants, outside China.
Fear: One decision on 27 Nov 2026 decides it.
UAMY, PPTA5/6
Trend: Critical mineralsCritical minerals shortage
Rare earths and magnets shortage: Stage 2, Pulled back
Stage 2 · Pulled backHeavy rare earths and magnets made outside China.
- What is short
- Heavy rare earths and magnets made outside China.
- Fear holding it back
- China's export pause runs out around Nov 2026.
- What could change it
- US ban on Chinese magnets in defense gear, 1 Jan 2027.
- What the stage means
- Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear.
Six shortage signals
6/6- Prices rising: yes
- Lead times over a year: yes
- Sold out or long contracts: yes
- New supply 18+ months away: yes
- Stock below its high: yes
- A dated catalyst: yes
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
Stocks tied to this shortage
| MP MP Materials | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $47.29 | $37.81 – $100.25 | 53% | $74.29 | $157.09 | $51.25 |
| USAR USA Rare Earth | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $14.08 | $11.45 – $43.98 | 68% | $35.56 | $252.56 | $34.75 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Dates to watch
Around Nov 2026China's pause on rare earth export limits runs outMP, USAR
1 Jan 2027US ban on Chinese magnets in defense gear startsMP, USAR
Questions
What is short in rare earths and magnets?
Heavy rare earths and magnets made outside China.
What stage is the rare earths and magnets shortage in?
Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear. It scores 6 of 6 shortage signals.
What is holding rare earths and magnets stocks back?
China's export pause runs out around Nov 2026.
What could change the rare earths and magnets story?
US ban on Chinese magnets in defense gear, 1 Jan 2027.
More in critical minerals
Copper and tungsten
Stage 3 · Priced inRecord copper prices; a new tungsten mine opened in September.
Fear: Already priced; tungsten supply arriving.
FCX, ALM1/6
Trend: Critical mineralsLithium
GlutToo much supply.
Fear: Glut.
ALB1/6
Trend: Critical minerals