Rare earths and magnets
Stage 2 · Pulled backHeavy rare earths and magnets made outside China.
Fear: China's export pause runs out around Nov 2026.
MP, USAR6/6
Trend: Critical mineralsCritical minerals shortage
Copper and tungsten shortage: Stage 3, Priced in
Stage 3 · Priced inRecord copper prices; a new tungsten mine opened in September.
- What is short
- Record copper prices; a new tungsten mine opened in September.
- Fear holding it back
- Already priced; tungsten supply arriving.
- What could change it
- None.
- What the stage means
- Stage 3, Priced in: the shortage is real and the stocks already reflect it.
Six shortage signals
1/6- Prices rising: yes
- Lead times over a year: no
- Sold out or long contracts: no
- New supply 18+ months away: no
- Stock below its high: no
- A dated catalyst: no
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
Stocks tied to this shortage
| ALM Almonty | Stage 3 · Priced in | $13.16 | $5.44 – $24.41 | 46% | $24.33 | $184.88 | $65.25 |
| FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Stage 3 · Priced in | $70.00 | $37.20 – $80.24 | 13% | $72.45 | $103.50 | $65.00 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Questions
What is short in copper and tungsten?
Record copper prices; a new tungsten mine opened in September.
What stage is the copper and tungsten shortage in?
Stage 3, Priced in: the shortage is real and the stocks already reflect it. It scores 1 of 6 shortage signals.
What is holding copper and tungsten stocks back?
Already priced; tungsten supply arriving.
What could change the copper and tungsten story?
None.