Rare earths and magnets
Stage 2 · Pulled backHeavy rare earths and magnets made outside China.
Fear: China's export pause runs out around Nov 2026.
MP, USAR6/6
Trend: Critical mineralsTrend
Critical minerals: where the shortage is and what stage it is in
Rare earths and antimony hinge on dated China and US policy deadlines. Copper and tungsten are already priced. Lithium is a glut.
Stage count for critical minerals
1StartingPrices just started rising. Stocks have not moved yet.0 stocks
2Pulled backShortage is real, but the stock dropped on a specific fear.4 stocks
3Priced inShortage is real and the stock already reflects it.2 stocks
4Slow buildMulti-year demand with no sudden price jump.0 stocks
✕GlutToo much supply. Prices falling.1 stock
Where it is pinched
Antimony
Stage 2 · Pulled backAntimony for ammunition and flame retardants, outside China.
Fear: One decision on 27 Nov 2026 decides it.
UAMY, PPTA5/6
Trend: Critical mineralsCopper and tungsten
Stage 3 · Priced inRecord copper prices; a new tungsten mine opened in September.
Fear: Already priced; tungsten supply arriving.
FCX, ALM1/6
Trend: Critical mineralsLithium
GlutToo much supply.
Fear: Glut.
ALB1/6
Trend: Critical mineralsStocks tied to critical minerals
| MP MP Materials | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $47.29 | $37.81 – $100.25 | 53% | $74.29 | $157.09 | $51.25 |
| PPTA Perpetua | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $21.53 Sep 29 | $16.44 – $37.37 | 42% | $36.90 | $171.39 | $60.00 if event fails |
| UAMY US Antimony | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $4.17 | $4.16 – $19.71 | 79% | $10.44 | $250.36 | $50.00 if event fails |
| USAR USA Rare Earth | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $14.08 | $11.45 – $43.98 | 68% | $35.56 | $252.56 | $34.75 |
| ALM Almonty | Stage 3 · Priced in | $13.16 | $5.44 – $24.41 | 46% | $24.33 | $184.88 | $65.25 |
| FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Stage 3 · Priced in | $70.00 | $37.20 – $80.24 | 13% | $72.45 | $103.50 | $65.00 |
| ALB Albemarle | Glut | $105.78 | $79.30 – $221.00 | 52% | $171.56 | $162.19 | $66.75 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Dates that could move these
Around Nov 2026China's pause on rare earth export limits runs outMP, USAR
27 Nov 2026Antimony decisionUAMY, PPTA
1 Jan 2027US ban on Chinese magnets in defense gear startsMP, USAR
Questions about critical minerals
What is the bottleneck in critical minerals?
Rare earths and antimony hinge on dated China and US policy deadlines. Copper and tungsten are already priced. Lithium is a glut.
Which critical minerals shortages are at stage 1 or 2?
Rare earths and magnets (stage 2, 6 of 6 signals); Antimony (stage 2, 5 of 6 signals). Stage 1 means prices just started rising and the stocks have not moved. Stage 2 means the shortage is real but the stocks fell on a specific fear.
Is there a glut in critical minerals?
Yes, in some parts: Lithium. A glut means too much supply, which is the opposite of a bottleneck.
Is this investment advice?
No. Bottleneck Finder is education and public data. It never tells anyone to buy or sell, and it does not know your finances.