Rare earths and magnets
Stage 2 · Pulled backHeavy rare earths and magnets made outside China.
Fear: China's export pause runs out around Nov 2026.
MP, USAR6/6
Trend: Critical mineralsCritical minerals shortage
Lithium shortage: Glut
GlutToo much supply.
- What is short
- Too much supply.
- Fear holding it back
- Glut.
- What could change it
- None.
- What the stage means
- Glut: there is too much supply and prices are falling.
Six shortage signals
1/6- Prices rising: no
- Lead times over a year: no
- Sold out or long contracts: no
- New supply 18+ months away: no
- Stock below its high: yes
- A dated catalyst: no
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
Stocks tied to this shortage
| ALB Albemarle | Glut | $105.78 | $79.30 – $221.00 | 52% | $171.56 | $162.19 | $66.75 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Questions
What is short in lithium?
Too much supply.
What stage is the lithium shortage in?
Glut: there is too much supply and prices are falling. It scores 1 of 6 shortage signals.
What is holding lithium stocks back?
Glut.
What could change the lithium story?
None.
More in critical minerals
Antimony
Stage 2 · Pulled backAntimony for ammunition and flame retardants, outside China.
Fear: One decision on 27 Nov 2026 decides it.
UAMY, PPTA5/6
Trend: Critical mineralsCopper and tungsten
Stage 3 · Priced inRecord copper prices; a new tungsten mine opened in September.
Fear: Already priced; tungsten supply arriving.
FCX, ALM1/6
Trend: Critical minerals