Optical lasers
Stage 2 · Pulled backIndium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
Fear: September AI-spending wobble cut many of these 35% to 58%.
AI data centers shortage
Glass cloth for chip boards (one maker holds about 90%) and MLCC capacitors. Prices up 30% to 140%.
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
| TTMI TTM Technologies | Stage 1 · Starting | $122.80 | $53.36 – $223.83 | 45% | $203.00 | $165.31 | $46.25 |
| VSH Vishay | Stage 1 · Starting | $32.46 Sep 29 | $11.77 – $69.47 | 53% | $40.00 | $123.23 | $55.00 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Glass cloth for chip boards (one maker holds about 90%) and MLCC capacitors. Prices up 30% to 140%.
Stage 1, Starting: supply is tight and prices just began to rise, but the stocks have not moved yet. It scores 5 of 6 shortage signals.
Most makers trade in Japan and Taiwan; US exposure is thin.
New glass cloth capacity mid-2027 at the earliest.
Indium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
Fear: September AI-spending wobble cut many of these 35% to 58%.
HBM memory, flash and hard drives allocated into 2028.
Fear: Already priced: SanDisk went about 41x in 21 months.
AMD's 2027 output reportedly committed; prices up over 40%.
Fear: Stocks already at analyst targets.