AI data centers shortage
Indium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
| AAOI Applied Optoelectronics | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $99.26 | $18.50 – $233.67 | 58% | $163.40 | $164.62 | $5.50 |
| AXTI AXT | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $77.41 | $4.00 – $143.16 | 46% | $91.60 | $118.33 | $52.00 |
| CIEN Ciena | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $351.82 | $143.19 – $637.51 | 45% | $516.83 | $146.90 | $67.25 |
| COHR Coherent | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $287.81 | $105.02 – $440.00 | 35% | $415.36 | $144.32 | $47.50 |
| FN Fabrinet | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $424.27 | $355.50 – $748.89 | 43% | $734.11 | $173.03 | $69.75 |
| LITE Lumentum | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $971.26 | $147.81 – $1,086 | 11% | $1,157 | $119.13 | $61.50 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Indium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
Stage 2, Pulled back: the shortage is real, but the stocks fell on one specific fear. It scores 5 of 6 shortage signals.
September AI-spending wobble cut many of these 35% to 58%.
Quarterly orders from the big cloud buyers.
Glass cloth for chip boards (one maker holds about 90%) and MLCC capacitors. Prices up 30% to 140%.
Fear: Most makers trade in Japan and Taiwan; US exposure is thin.
HBM memory, flash and hard drives allocated into 2028.
Fear: Already priced: SanDisk went about 41x in 21 months.
AMD's 2027 output reportedly committed; prices up over 40%.
Fear: Stocks already at analyst targets.