Trend
The original pattern. Memory and storage are priced in; optics have pulled back; circuit board materials are just starting.
Glass cloth for chip boards (one maker holds about 90%) and MLCC capacitors. Prices up 30% to 140%.
Fear: Most makers trade in Japan and Taiwan; US exposure is thin.
Indium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
Fear: September AI-spending wobble cut many of these 35% to 58%.
HBM memory, flash and hard drives allocated into 2028.
Fear: Already priced: SanDisk went about 41x in 21 months.
AMD's 2027 output reportedly committed; prices up over 40%.
Fear: Stocks already at analyst targets.
Plenty of assemblers. They buy the scarce parts.
Fear: Thin margins.
| TTMI TTM Technologies | Stage 1 · Starting | $122.80 | $53.36 – $223.83 | 45% | $203.00 | $165.31 | $46.25 |
| VSH Vishay | Stage 1 · Starting | $32.46 Sep 29 | $11.77 – $69.47 | 53% | $40.00 | $123.23 | $55.00 |
| AAOI Applied Optoelectronics | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $99.26 | $18.50 – $233.67 | 58% | $163.40 | $164.62 | $5.50 |
| AXTI AXT | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $77.41 | $4.00 – $143.16 | 46% | $91.60 | $118.33 | $52.00 |
| CIEN Ciena | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $351.82 | $143.19 – $637.51 | 45% | $516.83 | $146.90 | $67.25 |
| COHR Coherent | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $287.81 | $105.02 – $440.00 | 35% | $415.36 | $144.32 | $47.50 |
| FN Fabrinet | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $424.27 | $355.50 – $748.89 | 43% | $734.11 | $173.03 | $69.75 |
| LITE Lumentum | Stage 2 · Pulled back | $971.26 | $147.81 – $1,086 | 11% | $1,157 | $119.13 | $61.50 |
| AMD AMD | Stage 3 · Priced in | $611.76 | $159.33 – $639.00 | 4% | $618.51 | $101.10 | $38.00 |
| INTC Intel | Stage 3 · Priced in | $120.23 | $32.89 – $142.35 | 16% | $116.37 | $96.79 | $44.25 |
| MU Micron | Stage 3 · Priced in | $1,065 | $164.00 – $1,255 | 15% | $1,523 | $143.00 | $44.00 |
| SNDK SanDisk | Stage 3 · Priced in | $1,740 | $112.00 – $2,354 | 26% | $2,137 | $122.80 | $37.50 |
| STX Seagate | Stage 3 · Priced in | $922.34 | $209.00 – $1,145 | 19% | $1,125 | $121.97 | $47.75 |
| WDC Western Digital | Stage 3 · Priced in | $454.46 | $112.52 – $799.87 | 43% | $664.92 | $146.31 | $45.50 |
| SMCI Supermicro | Glut | $41.07 | $19.48 – $58.78 | 30% | $42.38 | $103.19 | $50.00 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
The original pattern. Memory and storage are priced in; optics have pulled back; circuit board materials are just starting.
Circuit board materials and tiny capacitors (stage 1, 5 of 6 signals); Optical lasers (stage 2, 5 of 6 signals). Stage 1 means prices just started rising and the stocks have not moved. Stage 2 means the shortage is real but the stocks fell on a specific fear.
Yes, in some parts: Servers and assembly. A glut means too much supply, which is the opposite of a bottleneck.
No. Bottleneck Finder is education and public data. It never tells anyone to buy or sell, and it does not know your finances.