AI data centers shortage
HBM memory, flash and hard drives allocated into 2028.
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
| MU Micron | Stage 3 · Priced in | $1,065 | $164.00 – $1,255 | 15% | $1,523 | $143.00 | $44.00 |
| SNDK SanDisk | Stage 3 · Priced in | $1,740 | $112.00 – $2,354 | 26% | $2,137 | $122.80 | $37.50 |
| STX Seagate | Stage 3 · Priced in | $922.34 | $209.00 – $1,145 | 19% | $1,125 | $121.97 | $47.75 |
| WDC Western Digital | Stage 3 · Priced in | $454.46 | $112.52 – $799.87 | 43% | $664.92 | $146.31 | $45.50 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
HBM memory, flash and hard drives allocated into 2028.
Stage 3, Priced in: the shortage is real and the stocks already reflect it. It scores 4 of 6 shortage signals.
Already priced: SanDisk went about 41x in 21 months.
Memory price reports each month.
Glass cloth for chip boards (one maker holds about 90%) and MLCC capacitors. Prices up 30% to 140%.
Fear: Most makers trade in Japan and Taiwan; US exposure is thin.
Indium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
Fear: September AI-spending wobble cut many of these 35% to 58%.
AMD's 2027 output reportedly committed; prices up over 40%.
Fear: Stocks already at analyst targets.