AI data centers shortage
AMD's 2027 output reportedly committed; prices up over 40%.
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
| AMD AMD | Stage 3 · Priced in | $611.76 | $159.33 – $639.00 | 4% | $618.51 | $101.10 | $38.00 |
| INTC Intel | Stage 3 · Priced in | $120.23 | $32.89 – $142.35 | 16% | $116.37 | $96.79 | $44.25 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
AMD's 2027 output reportedly committed; prices up over 40%.
Stage 3, Priced in: the shortage is real and the stocks already reflect it. It scores 2 of 6 shortage signals.
Stocks already at analyst targets.
Earnings.
Glass cloth for chip boards (one maker holds about 90%) and MLCC capacitors. Prices up 30% to 140%.
Fear: Most makers trade in Japan and Taiwan; US exposure is thin.
Indium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
Fear: September AI-spending wobble cut many of these 35% to 58%.
HBM memory, flash and hard drives allocated into 2028.
Fear: Already priced: SanDisk went about 41x in 21 months.