AI data centers shortage
Plenty of assemblers. They buy the scarce parts.
More signals means a tighter squeeze. How the signals work.
| SMCI Supermicro | Glut | $41.07 | $19.48 – $58.78 | 30% | $42.38 | $103.19 | $50.00 |
Range bar: the dark tick is the price between the 12-month low (left) and high (right). The green tick is the analysts' average 12-month target, capped at the high. Good case uses that target. Bad case is a 2022-style slump: a 25% market drop scaled by the stock's beta (floor 0.5; 2.5 where beta is missing). Event stocks use an "event fails" estimate. These are what-if numbers, not predictions.
Plenty of assemblers. They buy the scarce parts.
Glut: there is too much supply and prices are falling. It scores 1 of 6 shortage signals.
Thin margins.
None.
Glass cloth for chip boards (one maker holds about 90%) and MLCC capacitors. Prices up 30% to 140%.
Fear: Most makers trade in Japan and Taiwan; US exposure is thin.
Indium phosphide lasers for fiber links between AI chips. Lumentum says tight into 2028.
Fear: September AI-spending wobble cut many of these 35% to 58%.
HBM memory, flash and hard drives allocated into 2028.
Fear: Already priced: SanDisk went about 41x in 21 months.